Comparision of Forex and oil business

Wall Street analysts watch oil prices like hawks. During the early part of 2008, oil prices skyrocketed from near $75 to almost $140 within a few short months. This was more than a 100% increase in oil prices in a few months. All over the world, countries started feeling huge pressures on their balance of payment accounts. Many hedge fund managers heavily speculated on the increase in oil price. Some made a windfall, other lost when the oil prices suddenly collapsed.

Most of the increase in the oil prices was due to speculation. When the stock markets crashed, most of the hedge funds had to liquidate their investments in oil futures. The prices came down. The prices are down due to low consumer demand in a recession. But it is being predicted that with a recovery in the economy, the oil prices will go up again. As oil prices go up, consumers are forced to spend more on oil. The more they spend on oil, the less they can spend on other products. The less they spend on other products, the less profit companies make. Declining profits made by these companies mean declining stock prices.

The opposite case is also true; less the oil prices become, the more Wall Street becomes optimistic and exuberant about the profit potential of companies. This increased optimism and exuberance translates into a bullish stock market. Two large futures exchanges are used to determine the prices of crude oil. One is the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME). The other is the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Historically, rising oil prices have been associated with falling stock markets. NYME is where most of the crude oil futures are traded.

By monitoring the movement of the crude oil futures in NYME, you can develop a feel of the future economic situation of the United States. Since oil is heavily traded in US Dollar, this affects the US Dollar. The net effect is however a bit complicated. Let's take a look at it more closely. When oil prices increase, the demand for US Dollar also increases as most of the countries need US Dollar to pay for their oil imports. Increased demand for US Dollar means that it should appreciate. But this is not the whole picture. Increased oil prices also affect the US economy. The question is which effect is more important for the currency markets.

The effect varies for different currency pairs. Suppose you are watching a currency pair that involves the USD and a currency representing a country that does well during the times of high oil prices. Take Canada that has huge oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. The effect would be depreciation in the value of USD/CAD pair. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country. And if you are watching a currency pair that involves USD and a currency whose economy is harmed by the rising oil prices, the demand for USD will rise.

So some currencies have positive correlation with oil prices and other currencies have negative correlation with rising oil prices. The currency pair CAD/JPY shows the strongest reaction to rising oil prices. Japan imports almost 100% oil. When oil prices are going to rise again, watch for CAD/JPY currency pair. CAD is positively correlated with oil prices and JPY is negatively correlated. So CAD/JPY has the strongest reaction to rise in oil prices. It can be a very good currency pair to trade during times of rising oil prices.

Following Oil Prices in Forex Trading
If you want to become a good investor in forex, then you need to learn that the currency markets evolve and change with time. As the forex markets evolve and change, your trading strategies should also evolve and adjust. You will need to make a little tweak here and a little tweak there sometimes in your trading strategies in order to continue making profit. There will be periods of low returns or losses. But once you have made the changes and adjusted your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont get stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Start looking at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to them.

Global economy runs on the supply of oil. You can say oil drives the global economy. High oil prices put pressures on the global economy. Inflation rises and fear of a recession starting mounts. Lets discuss a currency trading strategy. It depends on following oil prices in the global markets. Some countries export oil. There are many sources of oil. But most of the countries in the world import oil. So oil prices tend to affect almost all the currencies in the world. Some currency pairs react more strongly. Others currency pairs less so when oil prices change. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months. Fortunately for you, oil prices tend to trend for months.

Similarly when oil prices decline, they tend to continue declining for several months. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are GBP and CAD. Let's focus on USD/CAD. As United States imports more oil from Canada, the value of CAD should increase with increase in oil prices in relationship to USD. This means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward with the increase in oil prices. This is an example of a trend trade. Watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, watch for times when oil prices are declining and the exchange rate USD/CAD is increasing.

We will use CCI, Commodity Channel Index, to trigger the trade. Watch the 14 period CCI (Commodity Channel Index) chart. It should cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This will tell you that the buyers made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but were unable to turn the trend around and it is still downward. This is time to open the trade. Enter the trade. Set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips. Go short on USD and long on CAD. This setup gives you a risk to reward ratio of 1:4. This risk to reward is very good and it allows you to be wrong a few times but without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000 profit and 75 pips means $750 loss if the trade goes against what you anticipated. Usually such a trade will continue for a month.

You can also trade the USD/CAD currency pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline. However, prolonged downtrends in the oil prices are unlikely under rising global oil demand. This trading strategy depends on just knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now. You can take advantage of this oil price movement. Oil prices have again started to climb. It has reached above $68. Take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD pair as described above.